Five-Year Natural Gas Basis Forecast - Multi-Client Analysis
5-Year NYMEX Henry Hub and Basis Forecast
Natural gas supply and demand has been turned on its head. The biggest impact of 2020 has been a remarkable decline in drilling in most key basins. The COVID-19 pandemic has had far reaching effects on both natural gas production and demand, both in abrupt, short-term shocks and changes to longer-term growth prospects. Midstream development has all but temporarily halted in this crisis. Natural gas demand, which was supposed to undergo steady growth in the year of 2020, has instead contracted slightly in the face of this unprecedented obstacle. The problem is that key basis points will change value dramatically over the next five years. Futures prices are mispriced and basis values fail to reflect the true picture.
This forecast is an independent analysis on the price and basis implications of these changes from the start of 2021 until the end of 2025.
The basis markets analyzed are as follows: (displayed on the map below with a blue label)
Katy Hub
Tennessee 500-Leg
Tx Eastern ELA
Columbia Gulf Mainline
Texas Gas Zone 1
REX Zone 3
NGPL Texok
Southern Star
CIG Rockies
Waha Hub
NYMEX Henry Hub
And more!
Additional basis points may be forecasted upon request.
Analysis of such locations provides a forecast of the basis differential to Henry Hub, offering insight into the market and identifying potential procurement savings and trading opportunities. Our 5-year forecast contains both a presentation with high definition charts and maps as well as a supplementary text document with detailed information. Gelber’s 5-Year forecast also contains a regional breakdown of each major producing region, US and Mexico midstream market outlooks and maps, LNG analysis, renewable energy analysis, supply-demand fundamentals, and more! Gelber & Associates, natural gas advisor and consultants to the industry for 30 years, is completing a special Forecast to help clients and customers get a respected, independent view of how these price shifts will impact their business.
Where are the new pipelines? How are the major midstream companies integrating their assets and interconnects? What gas flows first, what gas in incremental, how much expansion is likely at various LNG projects, will Henry Hub stay a premium point, or will basis begin to strengthen as drilling slows and demand rises?
