Iraq Boosts Gas Capture and Eni Deepens LNG Supply

The October NYMEX contract trades near $2.94/MMBtu, up a penny from yesterday’s close. Fundamentals lean looser day over day. Dry gas production is 106.6 Bcf/d (+1.3 Bcf/d), and with Canadian inflows easing to ~4.6 Bcf/d (-0.2), total supply still rises to ~111.2 Bcf/d (+1.1). On the demand side, power burn slips to ~38.1 Bcf/d (-1.0), industrial demand is down to ~21.9 Bcf/d (-0.2), and ResComm demand nudges up to ~9.3 Bcf/d (+0.1). LNG feed-gas runs are ~14.9 Bcf/d (-0.1) and pipeline exports to Mexico firm to 6.0 Bcf/d (+0.1). The daily balance implies an injection pace near ~13.4 Bcf today versus ~10.5 Bcf yesterday, consistent with an orderly, late-summer build.

Iraq reports capturing roughly 0.22 Bcf/d of associated gas at West Qurna 2, with ~0.18 Bcf/d routed to TotalEnergies and the remainder fueling field operations (currently ~125 MW, with plans to reach 250 MW by end-2027). Countrywide gas-capture capacity is ~2.88 Bcf/d with projects under way to add another ~1.19 Bcf/d over the next few years; analysts still estimate ~0.018 Bcf/d of flaring amid infrastructure gaps. Separately, Eni highlighted the growing role of the U.S. in its portfolio following a long-term SPA with Venture Global’s CP2 that secures roughly 0.26-0.27 Bcf/d of LNG starting in 2027, volumes that broaden European security of supply as Mediterranean spot prices hold above $10/MMBtu (DES Med assessed near $10.55).

Front-month WTI trades near $63.54/bbl, up from $62.37. Crude rallied more than $1/bbl as risk premia firmed, Poland intercepted drones amid a wider Russian strike and Washington pressed allies on tighter Russia measures, while talk of fresh sanctions on buyers added a bid. The move was checked by a bearish U.S. inventory print: EIA reported crude stocks up 3.9 million bbl, gasoline +1.5 million, and distillates +4.7 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 5, reinforcing concerns about shoulder-season demand. Macro expectations for a Fed rate cut next week and OPEC+’s ongoing production increases keep the near-term setup choppy, headline-sensitive to geopolitics, but with oversupply signals capping rallies.