our core practice

Risk Management

Comprehensive price risk mitigation solutions for minimizing client costs and managing portfolio volatility.

Market Fundamentals

Henry Hub-$0.07

$2.48

Midcon+$0.05

$2.64

Permian-$0.03

$2.12

Storage Trajectoryvs 5yr avg
3180 Bcf3040 Bcf2900 Bcf
JunJulAugSepOct

30+ Years of Trusted Natural Gas Risk Management

With more than three decades in the market, Gelber & Associates has earned the confidence of energy buyers across the country. We have guided regulated utilities through commission scrutiny and helped industrials protect margin in extreme volatility. Our team is known for pairing analytical rigor with hands-on execution and has become a trusted voice in the industry through hundreds of successful client engagements.

We do not trade our own account or act as brokers. Our only interest is protecting yours.

0 States
With Executed Hedging Programs

National reach across regulated and deregulated gas markets.

$0M+
Assets Under Advisory

Helping clients manage risk exposure and procurement costs at scale.

Top Ranked
Trusted Market Intelligence

Regularly cited by Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Platts.

0
First Industrial Hedge Program Launched

A legacy built on cost control and bottom-line impact.

0
First Utility Client Post California Energy Crisis

Decades of experience supporting PUC-aligned hedging programs.

How We Help You Navigate Price Risk

Whether you are looking to strengthen supplier strategy, develop a hedge program from scratch, or fine-tune your current approach, Gelber helps utilities and industrials capture value at every step. From reducing procurement costs to minimizing volatility and achieving regulatory alignment, our advisory services are designed to generate savings and deliver clarity across the full lifecycle of natural gas risk management.

Central Florida Tourism Oversight District Logo

Our team loves collaborating with Gelber & Associates to discuss hedging opportunities and the gas market. We make our own decisions but G&A’s guidance is one of the key inputs in our decision making process. Our positioning is very strong thanks to the teamwork between our staff and G&A’s hedging team.

Jennifer Albritton, Director at Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

Let's shape the future of energy.

In a volatile, quickly evolving industry, we prioritize a data-first approach to every risk-management program.

Price Risk Management & Analytics

Gelber & Associates offers comprehensive price risk mitigation solutions that have proven to be effective for many clients in a broad range of industries. The Gelber Least Cost Purchasing Practice™ is a structured framework for minimizing energy commodity costs and managing volatility in a client’s energy portfolio. What sets Gelber apart is our analytics and forecasting which predicts prices into the future using market participation, proprietary algorithms, and market experiences. This sets the tone and direction for the market and determines how its clients best need to prepare themselves for action.

Gelber has a renowned analytics team with a wealth of experience and credentials. Our team is available to businesses without an in-house analytics department or who are looking to augment their team for a singular project. As a flexible firm, we are able to handle a wide array of project types and offer customized solutions for both private and government entities.

Past Projects

20-Year Demand Forecast

The Gelber analytics group completed the long range forecast for an LDC integrated resource plan (IRP). The demand forecast was presented to the PUC separately and was then integrated into the IRP of the utility where it is now maintained and updated by their own staff personnel.

LSB Industries Logo

Gelber & Associates was instrumental in helping us make “just in time” decisions during the February 2021 cold snap. When gas supply was diverted from industrial uses to human needs requirements, Gelber helped us identify certain fixed price contracts that could be eliminated and repositioned us during more favorable times with fixed priced contracts that continue to perform well.

Kristy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer at LSB Industries

Evaluation Criteria

How long each offer locks in delivered pricing before the next evaluation.

Analyst Notes

  • Recommended supplier offers the widest swing tolerance with the strongest savings headroom.
  • Alternative bids remain competitive for secondary procurement windows or blended strategies.

Recommended Supplier

BlueLine Energy

Preferred
Criterion
Fixed Price Term
36 MonthsFull strip with 90-day exit clause
Riverfront Gas Partners24 Months
Northern Apex Supply18 Months
Delivered Price
Scenario Delivered Cost
$3.98 / MMBtuModeled outcome for this evaluation window.
Riverfront Gas Partners$4.05 / MMBtu
Northern Apex Supply$4.11 / MMBtu
Savings Impact
Bid Advantage
$143KProjected annual benefit for this criterion.
Riverfront Gas Partners$118K
Northern Apex Supply$96K

Supplier and Procurement Support

Secure Better Pricing and Terms with Strategic Procurement Support

We guide clients through every stage of supplier selection, from identifying the right counterparties to negotiating the most competitive contract structure.

Our team manages the full bid process, evaluating gas suppliers across pricing, reliability, and contract flexibility. We conduct RFQs, score proposals, and negotiate basis on your behalf, often identifying opportunities for immediate savings through optimized fixed-price hedges or fee structures that scale with results.

For smaller users, we facilitate fixed-price hedging (typically 1–2 years) with simplicity and speed, reducing exposure without overcomplicating execution.

Don’t let your supplier take advantage of you on unfair mark-ups. Secure better pricing, better terms, and more control.

Hedge Program Assessment, Development & Strategic Planning

We assess existing hedge structures and design custom programs aligned with your operational goals, regulatory requirements, and risk tolerance.

Our process begins with a collaborative evaluation of your current hedging strategy, including program design and features, instrument mix, internal practices, timing flexibility, regulatory alignment, and cost impact. Through guided interviews with key members across operations, procurement, and finance, we develop a right-sized plan, whether you’re revising a legacy program or building from scratch.

From there, clients receive tailored recommendations on hedge percentages, implementation cadence, and product structure (fixed price physicals, swaps, or options), all backed by forward cost modeling and regulatory defensibility. For utilities, we provide direct support for PUC filings, justifications, and structured guidance. For industrials, the focus shifts to cost control, flexibility, and operational fit.

Every successful hedge strategy starts with listening. The results are one strategy that fits your operations, budget, and compliance needs.

Plan Blueprint

Utility Hedge Plan

Focus on PUC defensibility, cadence approvals, and volumetric compliance.

  • Blend of fixed physical strips and options for seasonal coverage.
  • PUC filing support with structured narratives.

Hedge Window

24 Months

Instrument Mix

Locks cost basis with physical strips or swaps.

Assess ProgramStructure review & benchmarks.
Guided InterviewsOps, procurement, finance sync.
Plan BlueprintCadence, mix, filings.

Hedge Ladder Preview

Utility Hedge Plan · 24 Months · Fixed Bias

Years 1-2

H1

H2

H3

H4

Fixed Coverage
Floating Exposure
Options / Collars

Plan Emphasis

Regulatory SupportPUC filings, board decks, audit trails.
Cost ModelingForward pricing & variance visuals.

Ongoing market guidance, delivered or executed for you

We continuously scan weather shifts, regulatory filings, and basis moves to refresh guidance or handle execution as conditions change.

Price Forecast

Basis outlook

Next 90 Days

+$0.18 spread

JanFebMarAprMayJun

Guidance #1

Houston Ship Channel

Apr 8-19

Layer 25% fixed strips

Front spread widening with Gulf weather risk; secure incremental coverage while prompt liquidity remains.

Basis: +$0.24 vs. HSC

Date Justification

Align with refinery restart schedule; liquidity spike expected Apr 9-12.

Volume Justification

25% of summer burn keeps total coverage under 80% while smoothing prompt uplift.

Instrument Justification

3-month fixed strip w/ collars to capture upside if storm risk fades.

Active Hedge Advisory & Guidance

Ongoing Market Guidance, Delivered to Your Team or Executed by Ours

We provide timely, market-aligned hedge recommendations that your internal teams can act on, or we can manage execution on your behalf.

Gelber’s advisory model is built around flexibility. Clients receive data-driven hedge guidance tailored to their exposure, timing needs, and internal structure. For some, we act as a strategic advisor feeding execution-ready recommendations into internal workflows. For others, we carry out trades across physical and financial instruments, handling counterparties, timing, and documentation.

We continuously monitor market shifts and portfolio performance, recommending adjustments as needed based on evolving conditions, weather risk, or regulatory developments.

Your portfolio, your call. We support both paths.

Performance Tracking and Benchmarking

See What Your Hedges Are Actually Doing

We track the effectiveness of your hedge program through performance measurement, market comparisons, and risk exposure modeling, providing clear reporting and data-backed recommendations for what to do next.

Gelber gives clients a clear view into how their hedge portfolio is performing. We quantify cost savings, track outcomes against market benchmarks, and report on risk exposure using tools like value at risk models and pricing differentials. This helps clients validate internal decisions, communicate results to stakeholders, and ensure the hedge program is delivering on its intended purpose.

Reports are tailored to the audience, whether supporting executive reviews, regulatory filings, or performance scorecards. We focus on clarity, accuracy, and the insights that matter most, delivered in language that makes sense to traders, operators, and CFOs alike.

Make the impact of your hedge program visible and plan your next move.

Hedge Program Performance

Executive summary: coverage holds above 75%, VaR trending lower, and next action is to layer 10% more fixed strips.

Basis window widening
Alert

+$0.18 vs HSC noted on prompt delivery.

High

Prompt

Medium

3-6M

Stable

6-12M

Coverage0%
Effectiveness0%
VaR 95%$0.0M
Expected P&L+$0K
Coverage Window
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Program vs Benchmark
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Weekly FindingsAnalyst Notes
Regulatory

Support filing variance memo in progress.

Coverage

Midcon 3-6M bucket needs +10% fixed strips.

Helping Utilities and Industrials Manage Risk, Maximize Value, and Plan with Confidence

A complete buyer-focused risk advisory service covering supplier negotiations, hedge strategy, execution timing, and ongoing performance tracking. Designed for utilities navigating compliance and industrials focused on budget stability and operational certainty.

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